Trade NMR/USD

Every week, Numerai releases obfuscated financial data to participants, the features are anonymized so participants cannot identify which stocks or assets they are predicting. Data scientists build machine learning models and submit predictions for an upcoming period, then stake NMR on the confidence of their submission. After the prediction window closes, Numerai evaluates each model’s performance against a correlation metric. Models that outperform earn additional NMR; models that underperform lose a portion of their staked NMR through burning.

Using NMR rather than cash for staking creates stronger alignment between participant incentives and model quality. If Numerai paid cash rewards, participants might submit models they do not truly believe in since the downside of being wrong costs them nothing. By requiring participants to stake a token they must acquire and risk losing, Numerai filters for genuine conviction. The burn mechanism also benefits existing token holders by reducing supply when poor models are penalized.

The main Numerai tournament provides participants with Numerai’s own proprietary encrypted dataset. Numerai Signals allows participants to use their own external data sources, alternative data, news sentiment, or fundamental data, and submit stock market predictions based on that data. Signals targets data scientists who have unique data advantages rather than those focused on feature engineering Numerai’s internal data. Both products use the same NMR staking and reward mechanism.

No. NMR/USD on StoicMarkets is a Contract for Difference. You trade NMR’s price against the US dollar without holding any tokens. To participate in Numerai tournaments, stake on predictions, or earn rewards from model performance, you would need actual NMR tokens in an Ethereum-compatible wallet.